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Scottish house prices at 90% of peak

According to the latest Scottish House Price Monitor from Lloyds TSB Scotland, in the three months ending October 2011, the quarterly price index for the average domestic property in Scotland rose by 1.7% – the first quarterly rise following three consecutive quarterly falls. However, on an annual, underlying basis, Scottish house prices have fallen by 2.9%.

Following mix adjusting, the average Scottish house price is now £155,805.

The latest house price movement has been generated from a market with a low number of sales once more, but showing an 8% increase in activity from the three summer months ending July this year. However, compared to the same quarter one year ago, the number of transactions in the Monitor is 5% less.

For the market as a whole, Scottish house purchases in the first nine months of 2011 were 9% less than in the same period of 2010. The number of transactions in September 2011 was 5% down on the previous year.

There has been a marked recovery from the depressed levels seen in the grip of winter in February this year but the overall number of housing transactions in Scotland remains well below half of pre-recession levels.

Donald MacRae, chief economist, Lloyds TSB Scotland, said:

“The Scottish housing market has adjusted to the recession with a halving of sales and a period of volatile price movement. Average house prices are now 90% of their peak of three and a quarter years ago. Consumer confidence remains low due to high levels of retail price inflation in excess of increases in earnings squeezing disposable income. The Scottish housing market did recover from the depressed levels at the beginning of the year but the overall number of sales remains at less than half of pre-recession levels. A faster recovery awaits a resurgence of both business and consumer confidence.”