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Do statistics on average glasgow house price indicate market recovery?

Data recently released by the major Estate Agency site the Glasgow Solicitors Property Centre indicates that house prices in Glasgow and west central Scotland ended the year just under two per cent higher than they started.

The average selling price in the area is now £127,000, up from  £124,500 a year ago.  Robert Fitzpatrick of the Glasgow Law Practice, which is a member of the GSPC and also Rightmove.co.uk, comments that “Whilst statistics which seem to indicate an improvement are always welcome, they have to be looked at objectively and a very small rise in average prices is no indicator at all of the current health of the property market in the West of Scotland. 

We know that over the last three years, selling prices have fluctuated from one quarter to the next, but the overall effect has been little or no change and in some cases in fact a continuing and drastic deterioration of property prices in some of our more disadvantaged areas. The simple fact is that selling prices for what might be termed decent and popular properties are now almost exactly what they were at the start of 2010, although according to GSPC figures they remain around 12 per cent below their peak in 2007.”
 
Robert believes we need to look for other signs that there may be some improvement in the market.  He says “I would suggest that these signs may be starting to emerge and may be found in some of the other figures produced by the GSPC.”

  • Sales in the final quarter of 2012 were higher than expected, up by over 10 per cent compared to the same time last year.   
  • It is the first time that the Glasgow Solicitors Property Centre has recorded more sales in the last three months of the year than it did in the third quarter.
  • Selling times – a key indicator of market conditions – have shortened by almost 10 per cent compared to the same time last year, down from 145 days a year ago to 132 days now.

 Even so, the average property still takes over four months to sell.

GSPC chief executive, Mark Hordern, said in the GSPC Report: “We continue to report and comment on house prices, but in fact they have ceased to be the best indicator of market health. The first signs of a recovery in the market will not be a rise in prices, but a sustained increase in the number of transactions. Any changes in price will come later. “In that context, the recent improvement in sales is encouraging. This is clearly not a ‘spring bounce’ and happened at a normally slow time of year. But we have been here before.

“Sales started strongly in 2012 and withered away partly because bad economic news hit confidence, but largely because mortgage lenders tightened their lending criteria which throttled demand.”If this improvement in transactions is to continue, the economy has to avoid another major setback and lenders must at least maintain the gradual improvement in mortgage availability we have started to see.”

The Glasgow Law Practice offer 30 years of unrivalled experience in the local housing market and are best placed to advise you about the market and you should not hesitate to contact us for a confidential discussion of your property requirements for either selling or purchasing a home.  Please call Robert Fitzpatrick or Peter Maley on  0141 552 9193